Introduction to decision modeling
Every day, you make countless decisions, big and small, that influence your life. From choosing what to eat for breakfast to deciding on a career path, these decisions are often based on models, whether you realize it or not. A fundamental fact of natural resource management is that all decisions are based on models, and the decisions you make every day follow a similar pattern.
Source: Franz
What is a Decision Model? At its core, a decision model is like a roadmap for making choices. It’s a structured way to think about how your actions will lead to certain outcomes. Implicit in every decision you make is a belief that taking a particular action will result in a specific outcome that aligns with your goals. This belief and the logic used to arrive at a decision reflects your internal decision model.
For example, imagine you’re deciding what to wear on a rainy day. You might have a mental model that says, “If I wear my raincoat, I’ll stay dry.” This model guides your choice, helping you reach your goal of staying dry.
How do we deal with imperfect and variable knowledge in decision models? The knowledge upon which decision models are built may be imperfect and may vary depending on who you ask. This is especially true in fields like natural resource management, where science is continually evolving. Similarly, in personal decisions, the information you have may be limited or subject to change. Decision models acknowledge this imperfection but still help make the best choices based on what is known.
In addition to imperfect knowledge, this project acknowledges and values multiple ways of knowing, which can include Indigenous Traditional Knowledge as well as other sources of local ecological knowledge and experiences. Recognizing and valuing these sources, a method known as co-production of knowledge, has been described in the literature as, “the contribution of multiple knowledge sources, ways of knowing, and perspectives from different user groups with the goal of co‐creating knowledge and information…” (Cooke et al. 2021). While this discipline is well established, examples of how those different knowledge sources get united and inform decisions are uncommon.
By using models that represent imperfect and variable knowledge, we can a) learn more about the system being studied; b) foster transparency that increases understanding on rationale and outcomes; c) consider the assumptions that underlie our decisions; and d) ultimately make more knowledgeable decisions.
Decision modeling about water quality in the Klamath
The objectives of decision modeling in this project are to:
1) identify and demonstrate ways of uniting multiple ways of knowing in decision making;
2) develop decision models that summarize knowledge on water quality-ecosystem interactions in the Klamath River and simulate the ecosystem outcomes of different decision approaches and management actions;
3) Produce an online ShinyApp that interested parties can use to examine relationships between water quality, the river ecosystem, and management actions.
Specific project activities include:
- Rapid prototyping of the water quality decisions and models amongst the project team
- Develop a “toy” decision model that establishes the framework of the decision model with default values
- Generate figure of influencers vs impacted parties in the Klamath
- Identify landmarks for mapping knowledge framework & mapping of interviews into decision modeling framework
- Generate conceptual versions of visualizations for uniting ways of knowing
- Sensitivity analysis of knowledge
- Three focus groups with each of five invested parties – water users, conservation advocates, local residents, Yurok Tribe
- Produce ShinyApp
- Simulations of different decisions, ways of knowing, and management actions to produce visualizations of model results
Meet the Decision Modeling Team
Desiree Tullos, PhD, PE (OR)
Professor, Water Resources Engineering
Oregon State University
Jim Peterson, PhD
Assistant Professor and Unit Leader, USGS
Oregon State University
Project sub-team: Outreach and Decision Modeling
Email: jt.peterson@oregonstate.edu
Website: fwcs.oregonstate.edu/users/james-peterson
Kristine Alford
PhD StudentOregon
State University
